It’s been more than 6 months, since I first introduced my plans of purchasing a chunk of real estate, via a real estate development company. 37 posts later (!), and here we are! Of all those posts, this one is by far the most exciting one to write! π
I’ve spent countless hours reading numerous prospectuses and other investing material (I even spent quite a few nights out with the various developers). As fate would have it, Property #1 is not acquired via any of the developers that I have introduced on this blog (I suppose I’ll have to write a kind of “inside the walls” review now, won’t I? π ).
I have been following their movements for a while though, so when a “hot tip” landed in my mailbox from an old friend (thank you, old friend!), I was ready to jump on the opportunity (what do you know, maybe I did learn something from my night out with the Rich Dad company) π
This is so exciting! Are we ready to meet Property #1?!
OK then! Introducing, my Property #1 (of many to come, hopefully!…):
…You bought a parking lot, Nick?!
Technically, yes – but there’s also a building on the lot (in the background…) π
This one:
…You bought a PET store, Nick?!
Well, No. – I bought (10% of) a building that happens to house a pet store (they don’t sell pets – only food and accessories for pets). It also house one of the most well-known stores in the country – T.Hansen! (They sell auto parts and car accessories etc.).
So yeah, I bought a retail building! It really wasn’t my plan to go into retail real estate, until maybe my 3rd or 4th big real estate investment was in my portfolio, but during all my (late night) research, I kind of concluded that the market for residential real estate just really isn’t that lucrative at the moment. The prices are simply too high. Yes, there are good deals out there, but they are extremely hard to come by, and they all require a minimum buy-in of β¬100.000 (DKK 750.000). I don’t currently have that much money, nor do I actually wish to put that much cash into one single project (my initial goal was somewhere in the range of DKK 300.000-400.000/project).
…OK, so how much did this old piece of cr…lovely pile of bricks run you, Nick?
Actually, the building is brand new. It was finished in 2018, and the current tenants (the two stores mentioned above) moved in in November 2018. A 10% share of this lovely pile of bricks was a mere bargain, and cost me DKK 515.000 (β¬68.666 / $79.230) of my hard earned cash. First off, I obviously broke the bank on this one, not only exceeding my original plan of only investing up to DKK 400.000 in one project, but also as avid readers would know, I don’t technically have that much cash in the bank right now…
Luckily, the property is not going to be added to my portfolio until the end of July (we’ve made a down payment of DKK 100.000 on the property, so the seller knows we’re good for it), so I have a few months to determine how I want to raise the extra cash (cash out on some of my crowdlending platforms – or deploy a wee bit of leverage? Let me know what you would do if you were me, in the comment section below! ).
Retail Real Estate? Huh! So, what’s so unique about this particular property, Nick?
I’m glad you asked! As with all other Real Estate investments, there’s 3 important things to consider: Location, location and location π
This property is placed in a so-called growth city (estimated to grow between 5-10% over the next 10 years), in an area that is popularly referred to as a “retail park”. This means that it’s flanked by several other retail stores (because it attracts people). What is kind of unique for this particular location though, is that it also includes grocery stores (the closest neighbor is a Rema1000, which is one of my favorite grocery stores, which you can actually also invest in on similar terms, but the buy-ins are typically around β¬100.000. Bummer.).
OK, but itsn’t it kind of just a square cardboard box with some paint and a few windows?! What could possibly go wrong here, Nick!?
Yes, obviously this was also one of my biggest concerns, going into this project. The building itself is not worth much (if I’m honest) – it’s the location and its current tenants that I bought into. Did I mention that it’s a so called “Net lease”, and that the tenants has signed a 10-year irrevocable contract?
Before I decided to invest in this particular project (and it was not easy getting a piece π ) I was looking at purchasing my 2nd REIT, which is well-known for its portfolio of “recession safe” retail stores. Have a look at Realty Income Corp and you’ll understand what I mean.
I’m not claiming that T.Hansen or Petworld is recession safe (T.Hansen is fairly safe I think), but the fact that this property can financially sustain itself with only T.Hansen as the tenant (should Petworld go bust) made me jump on it (T.Hansen occupies about 65% of the footprint, so they are the “primary” tenant). Tires and car parts are still needed during a recession I believe π (especially if they are cheap!)
But obviously, when the 10 year lease is up, there’s really no telling what could happen (let’s hope at least T.Hansen would want to renew their lease! π ). Did I mention that the rental income from this project alone will repay me my deposit in only 9 years?…So this means that after 9 years I will have my money back (and then some), and I can then re-invest them in another project. The project is actually budgeted to run for 20 years (with the same or similar tenants, who are willing to pay the rent of course).
If I (and the other investors) were to keep this building for 20 years, and the tenants were to renew their lease after the first 10 years (or new tenants – remember it’s a good location!), this project will pay me more than 3 times what I put into it – this is before factoring in any kind of appreciation of the property itself (it can be difficult to predict the value of such a property after 20 years. Perhaps it’s worth more than you initially paid for it – perhaps it isnt! It will depend whether you have two strong tenants – like the original ones – at that time). Anyway, since I’ve already more than tripled my money at that point, I really don’t have to care about what the building is worth. – Of course I do care (I could get a decent capital growth out of it!), but I didn’t invest in this project for the potential capital growth – I picked it because of the (very) nice rental income.
This sounds to good to be true, Nick! What’s the catch?!
Well, there are a couple of caveats to this kind of investment (like there are caveats to any investment).
The first one is: There are 10 investors in this project, which means 6/10 (as a minimum) people have to agree on the direction of the project. If you happen to be among the 4 “losers”, it sucks to be you! I’m told (by the developer) that from their experience (close to 10 years of doing these type of projects) there’s typically a fairly broad agreement on the direction in the investor group. I’m hoping that will also be the case for my group, but you never know! π (that friend who gave me the hot tip is also an investor in this project – so at least we’re 2/10 with a similar agenda)
The second one is: There’s no cash flow from the property until the year 2023 (WHAT!?). This is because the cash flow is used to pay down the mortgages, in order to lower the LTV.
The third one is: The majority of the cash flow is based on re-mortgaging the primary loan every 5 years (the first year being 2023, because the project went into operation in 2018), and effectively keeping the LTV at around 69% (of the original value of the property). I really would prefer it, if the LTV was kept around 40-50% – but that’s up to the investor group to decide, so I do have a say in it (but I’d have to agree with the majority of the other 9 investors). We’ll see what we decide when the time comes to re-mortgage (it’s a 5-year fixed rate variable loan). But for now, this is what has been planned in the budget. The budget is subject to change of course (this developer has now been in business for almost 10 years, and not a single project has fallen below budget, yet. They are fairly conservative in their budgets, but here it’s important to keep in mind the extraordinary situation, wich has been going on for about 10 years now – the interests level has been in a constant decline. I doubt this trend will continue!) π
The fourth one is: There is a bank loan to finance the project from 69%-80% of the value (the rest is financed by the investor deposits). Until 2023 I’m personally liable for the bank loan (my part amounts to about DKK 230.000), should something go terribly wrong (like a massive drop in the property value or the bankruptcy of both the tenants etc.). This bank loan will be paid off entirely at the first remortgage of the primary loan in 2023, and I don’t consider any of the above described scenarios as likely to happen, so this caveat doesn’t concern me that much π – But I’d prefer a project without a bank loan – but those are rare, so I suppose this (short) bank loan period is an acceptable compromise.
And now to the really fun part
So why did I jump on this particular opportunity? Well, this is the budgeted cash flow from the first 20 years of operations of the property (note that this require the leases to be extended after year 10 – or new tenants who pay a similar rent):
Year | Income (DKK) | Acc. Income (DKK) | Income (EUR) | Acc. Income (EUR) |
2019 | 0 kr. | 0 kr. | β¬ 0 | β¬ 0 |
2020 | 0 kr. | 0 kr. | β¬ 0 | β¬ 0 |
2021 | 0 kr. | 0 kr. | β¬ 0 | β¬ 0 |
2022 | 0 kr. | 0 kr. | β¬ 0 | β¬ 0 |
2023 | 175.848 kr. | 175.848 kr. | β¬ 23.446 | β¬ 23.446 |
2024 | 37.465 kr. | 213.313 kr. | β¬ 4.995 | β¬ 28.442 |
2025 | 39.539 kr. | 252.852 kr. | β¬ 5.272 | β¬ 33.714 |
2026 | 41.644 kr. | 294.496 kr. | β¬ 5.553 | β¬ 39.266 |
2027 | 43.781 kr. | 338.277 kr. | β¬ 5.837 | β¬ 45.104 |
2028 | 333.099 kr. | 671.376 kr. | β¬ 44.413 | β¬ 89.517 |
2029 | 46.043 kr. | 717.419 kr. | β¬ 6.139 | β¬ 95.656 |
2030 | 48.259 kr. | 765.678 kr. | β¬ 6.435 | β¬ 102.090 |
2031 | 50.508 kr. | 816.186 kr. | β¬ 6.734 | β¬ 108.825 |
2032 | 52.793 kr. | 868.979 kr. | β¬ 7.039 | β¬ 115.864 |
2033 | 342.260 kr. | 1.211.239 kr. | β¬ 45.635 | β¬ 161.499 |
2034 | 55.357 kr. | 1.266.596 kr. | β¬ 7.381 | β¬ 168.879 |
2035 | 57.727 kr. | 1.324.323 kr. | β¬ 7.697 | β¬ 176.576 |
2036 | 60.134 kr. | 1.384.457 kr. | β¬ 8.018 | β¬ 184.594 |
2037 | 62.578 kr. | 1.447.035 kr. | β¬ 8.344 | β¬ 192.938 |
2038 | 65.060 kr. | 1.512.095 kr. | β¬ 8.675 | β¬ 201.613 |
2039 | 67.580 kr. | 1.579.675 kr. | β¬ 9.011 | β¬ 210.623 |
Notice especially the years 2023, 2028 and 2033. Also, did I mention: These numbers are after tax (I’m investing via a special company form called VSO, as described here) – KA-CHING!
Remember that these numbers are pure profits from the rental income (and mortgage refinancing) – it’s fair to expect some form of capital growth as well (albeit I prefer not to). The total profit after 20 years is actually a staggering DKK 2.257.000 (β¬300.933 / $347.230) after tax (according to the budget). I consider the appreciation on such a building to be somewhat limited after 20 years of operation to be honest, so I do NOT believe in such a high appreciation personally. But again, it looks pretty insane that DKK 515.000 could possibly be turned into that amount of money in 20 years. – Just imagine, if I had 5-6 of these projects in my portfolio already (I did imagine it – it was pretty mind blowing).
Imagine this
I imagined that I could somehow manage to scrape together a similar amount of cash, as I have put into Property #1, and invest in a new (similar) project, each year for the next 5 years (ultimately co-owning 6 properties). I would thus have put in the equivalent of my Total Balance goal (a little over β¬400.000), and that would net me an average yearly income of just over β¬90.000 (AFTER TAX!) from the year 2028 to the year 2039. This would correspond to a yearly interest rate of 22.5% of my invested funds. Suck it, 4% rule!
Imagine that π Unfortunately, I don’t see any way I’d be able to scrape together β¬68.666 every year for the next 5 years straight, so this was a fun thought experiment – but not something that is going to be realistic. HOWEVER, I’m going to attempt a 2-year cycle. – So that’d be β¬34.333 per year…That will require some good ol’ blood, sweat and tears to bank those kind of numbers (aaaand maybe a little leverage? π ). Of course, by year 4, I’m going to be getting a little help from Property #1 already! Can we do it?! YES. WE. CAN! Here I come, Early Retirement!
The Strategy
Just to wrap things up here (sorry I got carried away there for a second – these numbers are making me dizzy π ).
While my little thought experiment above is arousing, I do not plan to build a property portfolio solely consisting of retail/commercial real estate. My heart truly lies with residential real estate, which unfortunately typically doesn’t have as aggressive payout schedules, as the retail projects does. I like “pretty” buildings, and I like the idea that there are actual people living in them (I can easily relate to that – everybody needs a home). If you find a proper building at a proper location, there’s always going to be people who’ll want to live in it. So I’ve vowed that my Property #2 should contain some residential aspect (at least) – it could be a mix though (say an apartment building with apartments on top and a retail store at the ground level? π ). Anyway, my pockets are now pretty empty, so I better get back to work! π
So, why did I invest in this kind of project?
I’ve talked to quite a few people about property investing, and most of them always ask: “Why don’t you do it yourself?”.
Frankly, I’ve considered it many times – but at the end of the day, I’m just not attracted to a part-time job, of being a landlord. Also, I don’t want to own a house or an apartment – I want to own BIG BUILDINGS. – And as I discovered, most of the buildings that are out on the open market (that I could afford at this point) are either crap and/or overpriced. Also, I’ve heard a lot of the developers that I’ve spoken to state the following (independent of one another, so I believe it to be true): the condominiums/apartment buildings that are sold on the open market, are properties that the professionals have turned down (for whatever reason). As in many type of industries, being in the Property investing business is all about who you know. By joining a group of other investors (with presumably a similar mindset as myself), I’ve now joined a powerful network of people, in “the circle of trust”. And I plan to remain in there for years to come π
If you’re interested, you can read the full prospectus of Property #1 here (It’s in Danish – sorry!)
Hi Total Balance
I am a happy reader of your blog, and you seem to be well informed regarding these investment projects. I have one i mind that I’m considering right now – Have you heard of Gefion Investorsalg when you researcehd which project you wanted to invest in?
They have released this new one in Ballerup, investing in a student home: https://static2.gefioninvestorsalg.dk/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/2019.06.25-Investorpr%C3%A6sentation-Gefion-Telegrafkollegiet-FINAL.pdf
.
Could you see any downsides, that I don’t?
Hi EDB (funny acronym, if you are a dane π )
I believe Gefion is a solid company, but I donβt see how their projects would fit into a dividend investors portfolio, in that Gefions projects do not pay any dividends π also, if you want to own 10% you have to put down 10,9 mio dkk! And you want to own 10%, because thatβs when the dividends (and yield) becomes tax free (if you invest via a company structure). If you have 750k dkk that you donβt need for 10 years, then I believe itβs a solid investment though π
Hi Nick, can you elaborate a bit?
Have you considered what will happen to your investment in a high inflation scenario? What happens with your tenants lease contract if the interest rates rise?
Is it financed with a 30y F5 loan?
Lets say the interest rate on the loan rises to 8% in 2023, how will this effect the lease contract with your tenants?
Is the loan “reset” to a 30y maturity every 5 years?
Best Regards, Mega
Hi Mega,
thanks for your questions! I’m glad someone is taking an interest in “the project”. I will try to answer all your questions as best I can π
Have you considered what will happen to your investment in a high inflation scenario?
The lease contract(s) state that we will be able to raise the rent (yearly) with up to 3%. Should the inflation be higher, well then the same will happen as with any other investment – your money will depreciate. – But at least the first 3% is secured π
What happens with your tenants lease contract if the interest rates rise?
Nothing…The lease is re-negotiated after 10 years.
Is it financed with a 30y F5 loan?
The first 70% of the property is financed with a 20y F5 loan
Lets say the interest rate on the loan rises to 8% in 2023, how will this effect the lease contract with your tenants?
It won’t in any way affect the lease contract. But I suppose what you are alluding to, is what will happen with the profits? The answer to that questions is: A lot, but the project will still be profitable. The debt at that point in time will be around 11mio DKK. Even if the interest were to rise to 10% that would mean an interest payment of DKK 1.100.000/year. At that point, the profits amount to about DKK 1.200.000/year (from the rent payments), so the project would still be profitable, albeit very limited π
Is the loan βresetβ to a 30y maturity every 5 years?
No π
It’s important to note that the project has a budget, which is based on todays interest rate levels (but with a small margin added for safety). As proven above, the interest can spike quite high, and the project would still be profitable. It’s also important to note that as one of the owners (together with 9 others), I have complete control of the financials. IF the interest were to spike to – lets just say 5% in the year 2023, we COULD opt to re-mortgage to a completely different loan if we wanted to. Nothing is set in stone – we have the possibility to adapt to the new normal at any give time, just as you do with the mortgage on your own home.
My only concern, is that we are 10 people who would have to agree on the route forward. Right now, we’re all kind of “adhering” to the projected budget, but IF unforseen events were to happen, there’s no guarantee that the other owners would act the way that I would prefer π It’s a majority democracy. Personally, I’d prefer it if we were a little less aggressive in the project, in paying out dividends, because they are based on maintaining the LTV around 70% of the original value of the property (means if the building appreciates, the LTV would automatically decrease). I’d like to take it down to somewhere between 50-60% before we start paying out huge dividends to ourselves. This discussion is however mute, until the first year of planned dividend payouts (year 2023), so there’s no point in me “worrying” about that now π
Great job, love the numbers! Also I don’t fully understand them (yet – will reread tonight) but they seem to be all nice and shiny.
I guess finding the right group to invest with was the hardest part here, not the actual management. I like that, landlording is a part-time job I hear from a lot of investors.
Nick, finally!
Congratulations on your new well-researched and meditated investment π It took some time but it seems to be worth it now, doesn’t it? After the 5th year, you’ll be adding a nice amount of cash flow from a reliable source of investment with no mortgage repayments left. I must admit that I don’t understand it 100%, but to me, it looks safe at first glance and a long term smart investment.
For a second, I wasn’t sure whether I was reading the last Property Partner investment opportunity or your blog, hehe.
I own a very small piece of commercial property in Property Partner with similar conditions. It probably is the safest I have but it’s also performing below average.
The property is let to a reliable supermarket chain (Sainsbury) in a growing area with 10-year lease term signed, and 19.5 years RPI inflation-linked lease, which will ensure that the evaluation of the property and rent increase at the same rate as inflation (I believe, I am still learning). The big difference between your investment and my little one is on the mortgage repayment schedules, as the investment strategy differs.
I am forwarding down below a link that describes Property Partner commercial property investments strategy. After your long research and acquirement of knowledge, I would love to hear your thoughts and point of view about it, if you find a second.
https://www.propertypartner.co/blog/an-overview-of-our-commercial-property-acquisition-strategy/
In regards on whether to sell P2P investments or leverage further it is hard to say, what would Rich Dad say? Use other people money! hehe π
Looking forward to seeing how it all goes after the waiting time π
Thanks, Tony!
That was an interesting read from PropertyPartner! I have been looking a little at PropertyPartner, but it seems the yield is very low, compared to the projects that we have here in DK (and then there’s the whole Brexit issue, so I’ve opted to not invest in Β£ for now). I think they are fairly safe investments though, like you say. It seem they have the right focus indeed. Obviously it’s difficult to predict the demographic development during the next 10-20 years, but as long as you invest in growth cities, I think this kind of investment is fairly safe, provided that you invest in the right areas/locations. – Then there’s the question of the store type, which it seems PropertyPartner has a clear strategy for. I noticed they don’t like shopping malls. I’m not sure why that is – I’d love to invest in a few of the newer “mega malls” that we have here in DK, if I get the opportunity. I’m sure they have their reasons to avoid them though π
I have a clear strategy to have an overweight in my portfolio towards Real estate. I wouldn’t mind having 60-70% of my assets tied up in some form of real estate. That being said, I believe it’s important to diversify within my real estate portfolio, so I will be adding residential real estate eventually. I’m not too crazy about office spaces (as I also told P2035), as there appear to be a surplus of those in a lot of areas. – Also office buildings are so boring, and they are dead/empty after hours and in the weekends. I think the future we will see office space, residential and retail merge together in one building, and I’d really like to get a piece of that π We see this tendancy happening already in the big cities, where you have projects that involve multiple tenant types in a single project – it’s the first step towards the futuristic “mega cities” I believe π Urbanization for the win!
Good point about Rich Dad! π I will keep that in mind! I’m fairly sure I will deploy a little bit of leverage, as it seems foolish to pull money out of an investment that is netting 10%+, when I can borrow money in my bank for 3.5% (no signup fees, even – this is the benefits of working in the financial sector π ). When my mortgage in my house is up for refinancing next spring, I will probably merge whatever leverage credit I have at that time with my mortgage instead. This will lower the interest rate to <1%.
Finally, Nick π Congratulations on the investment! It sounds quite interesting and I’m looking forward to hearing how it will develop. If you hear about new investments from your “circle of trust”, I might be interested π
Thanks!
HA! What happens in the circle, stays in the circle! π
I will keep you posted π
Have you been looking at anything in particular? I see your liquid assets are getting close to that β¬100.000 mark. I didn’t think you’d be willing to put that much into a single real estate project? There are projects like this: https://bluecapital.dk/projektvisning/k/s-jysk-detail–grenaa.aspx?PID=16
But as I just wrote to TSN, if you see a project like this one online, and it’s still open for investors, you don’t want it π
Ahh, very exciting Nick! Congratulations π
Where do you find these sorts of deals? Is there some kind of ‘Right Move’ for commercial property investments? Or do you just have to hang around these shady conventions? π
Thanks!
Haha, I wish π
First of all, you have to remember that Denmark is a very small country. There’s only a handful of real estate developers like the ones I’ve now invested with. I gather there might be somewhere between 10-20 companies in the country, who has the same business concept. Out of those, only 5-10 are serious about their business, and spend the required hours building their investor database and making these “pretty” presentations. Then there are also companies who does this kind of thing “privately”, which are backed by extremely wealthy people. I was shortlisted on one project with another developer at one time, which was close to where I live. I hadn’t seen pictures or any details, beside the amount that I could invest and how much I could expect to make over time (10 year residential real estate project). The project was sold (10 investors) even before the official launch. That’s when I learned that I would have to get in line early, if I wanted a piece of the good projects. The projects that AREN’T sold out before they launch, are the less desirable ones. They sell within a week or so anyway, but the really good ones are sold in minutes – even before they officially launch.
The concept is very similar to that of PropertyPartner. Only, the projects from the developers that I’ve been following are really aimed at the professional investor – which is the segment where I’d like to be.
Each developer has their own “specialty” and area of operations. Only the biggest ones operate across the entire country. The biggest ones have projects in the excess of β¬100.000.000 which will contain multiple properties in a “bundle” project to spread the risk. Such projects have hundreds of investors of course, and the minimum buy-in is always β¬100.000+. These projects doesn’t really appeal that much to me, as I prefer to have a single property in a single city – and then diversify across cities/buildings over time. I don’t think I will be investing with the same developer for Property #2, but it all comes down to the timing I guess. The right project at the right time, with the right developer, and the right amount of cash in the bank – then BOOM, I’m there! π
My main problem now, is what to do with all that spare time that I’m going to have, now that I don’t have to keep tabs on all those developers – I won’t have cash to participate in another project until 2 years from now. And so, the waiting game begins! :O
Interesting investment. On top of what you say you have to evaluate the e-commerce threat to retail. I dont know what is the situation in Denmark but in US some of retail stores are closing down. Im not so sure that your box will not end up empty in 10y. No CF for first 5y and lots of CF based on remortgage. Also that 10 owner thing… too many red flags forme, but it might end up ok. RE is a good investment in general π All the good luck with this one π I would personaly go for small office.
I share your concerns π however, the two stores in question were succesful ecommerce stores before they started opening up physical stores. Thatβs an interesting development in my opinion. But as I also wrote, the most important thing is that the property is located in a vibrant Trade area, with lots of other stores to attract people. Office spaces doesnt really appeal to me, as they are βdeadβ buildings in the majority of the time, and there is a surplus of Office space in my opinion – lots of empty buildings that I drive by every day. I have office buildings via my REIT #1 π
E-commerce physical stores… yes that isinteresting π If you say there is office oversupply in Denmark then yes you should stay away from them. RE investment is a good thing. Especialy if you have a good fealing about the site. As said good luck with the investment π
It sounds like youβve done a lot of research! Awesome news! Where you in doubt on you should invest in other assets instead?
Can’t wait to hear more π
I often get the urge to invest in single stocks – the main reason being that I understand/like the companies behind. I figure I can do that in due time.
Since I started this journey, Iβve never doubted that I wanted to go big on Real estate. When the summer ends, my first property will be in operation! That feels kind of good. Iβm confident it will turn a decent profit.
Iβm worried though, that I will get bored during the next couple of years, re-accumulating enough cash to buy a 2nd property π
We shall see how that goes!
Very exciting news! I admire your risk tolerance, going all in on this, but if it pays off, it looks like you’ll do very well out of it. It sounds like you’ve done a lot of research though, so fingers crossed you avoid any issues. Looking forward to reading more about it over the coming months!
Thank you, DR! π I sometimes admire my risk tolerance as well! π I realized a long time ago that if you want to be a big player, you have to be ready to play in the big leagues π
I will definitely keep you guys posted – but unfortunately I don’t expect a whole lot to happen in regards to Property #1 for about 4 years π The investor group have an annual meeting, where we review the books and the budget. So while it’s extremely boring, I think it’s going to be worth it in the long run. Luckily, I’ll have my crowdlending investments to keep things “interesting” on a monthly basis π
Thanks for stopping by!